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Investing & Savings

Growth is the one part of personal finance where time does most of the work, and where small differences in rate or timing compound into large ones. These calculators separate the money you put in from the money it earns — including the awkward cases, like what a portfolio really returned once you account for everything you added along the way.

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About investing & savings

Growth is the one part of personal finance where time does most of the work. A balance that compounds earns on its earnings, so the curve is not a straight line and the last decade contributes far more than the first. That is why the year somebody starts matters more than the amount they start with.

The arithmetic is not complicated. What causes trouble is measurement. Somebody who invested $10,000, added $500 a month for ten years and ended with $112,000 did not earn 27% a year, even though the first and last balance say so — most of that balance is their own money. The honest figure accounts for when each contribution arrived, and it is around 8%.

The other thing worth stating plainly: a constant rate of return is a planning tool, not a forecast. No market delivers the average every year, and for anyone drawing money down the order in which good and bad years arrive changes the outcome substantially. These calculators are explicit about that rather than presenting a smooth curve as a prediction.

What goes wrong here

Each of these costs real money, and each is avoidable once it is named.

  • Measuring return by dividing the balances

    With contributions along the way, comparing the first balance to the last massively overstates performance, because it credits your own deposits as growth. The gap is routinely three-fold.

  • Optimising compounding frequency

    Moving from annual to daily compounding at 8% on $10,000 over twenty years is worth about $2,900. One extra percentage point of return over the same period is worth $9,435. The frequency is worth getting right; it is not worth chasing.

  • Reading a projection in future dollars

    A balance quoted thirty years out buys considerably less than the same number today. Judge it in today's money, which every projection here also reports.

  • Ignoring fees

    A 1% annual fee is roughly a 1% lower return, compounded for the whole period. Enter returns net of fees or the projection is describing somebody else's account.

Questions people ask

Nobody can tell you what the next thirty years will do. A savings account pays what it pays. A diversified stock portfolio has historically averaged more over long periods, with years far worse and far better. Whatever you choose, enter it after fees, and treat the result as a way of thinking rather than a prediction.